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Matt Roy’s Playoffs Will Determine His Kings’ Future

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Michael Ostrower | Last updated 4/22/24

Matt Roy was selected 194th by the Los Angeles Kings’ in the 2015 NHL Draft and has completely outperformed his draft position. He debuted in the NHL in the 2018-19 season, playing just 25 games, but has since become a lineup regular. He is a dominant, two-way defenseman who embodies what it means to be a King, and he has gone through the team’s rebuild. Now entering their window of contention, an abundance of options in the defense may force Roy out of Los Angeles if he does not step up big in the 2024 Playoffs.

Surplus of Defensive Talent

A great issue to have is a surplus of talent. Roy is a right-handed defenseman on a team that has Drew Doughty, Jordan Spence, and top prospect Brandt Clarke. In addition to those three, the Kings had Sean Durzi and Brock Faber, both of whom they had to trade away due to not having room. Doing the math, that is six right-handed defensemen who, in any combination of the six, would form a great defensive core.

Faber emerged as an elite defenseman in his rookie season for the Minnesota Wild, and Durzi broke out for the Arizona Coyotes, scoring nine goals and 41 points while playing nearly 23 minutes a night this season. Now, with three right-handed defensemen on the NHL roster, Clarke, one of hockey’s top prospects, has been left out of the lineup due to there being no room.

With Doughty likely being locked into the franchise for the remainder of his career, and Clarke poised to find room in the NHL next season, Roy, a pending unrestricted free agent, is playing for his job. Regardless of where he plays next season, he will be signing a life-changing contract extension, but if he wants to stay in Los Angeles, he will need to have a great playoff performance to be offered another deal.

Mapping Out a Contract

The issue with retaining Roy is more than just roster space but the salary cap. The Kings will be tight to the salary cap and have other free agents such as Cam Talbot and Viktor Arvidsson to take care of. While both of those players could leave, general manager Rob Blake will be making a move for a goaltender who will not be cheap. All things considered, fitting in Roy’s salary will not be easy.

Some contract comparables are Artem Zub’s four-year, $4.6 million average annual value (AAV) contract with the Ottawa Senators, Damon Severson’s eight-year, $6.25 million AAV contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and Erik Cernak’s eight-year, $5.2 million AAV contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning. What Roy could be offered will vary with a lot of factors, such as supply and demand. The top right-shot defenseman on the market will be Brandon Montour, who is expected to fetch a six to an eight-year contract that lands in the $6 to $7.5 million AAV mark so his signing will impact Roy’s. As well, a lot of teams could have an interest in Roy, but that interest is currently unknown.

With the offseason yet to begin and the draft looming, it is unknown which current NHLers will be extended before free agency begins, and where top draft prospects could go. For a team like the Senators, they will have a top-nine selection. If they win the lottery or jump up to second overall, they could select top defensive prospect Artyom Levshunov. This would likely remove them from interest in signing Roy to a long-term deal given Levshunov’s likely chance of joining the NHL no later than the 2025-26 season. Even if they do not win the lottery, they could select top right-handed defensive prospects Carter Yakemchuk or Zayne Parekh. With these selections, who knows how they could analyze the future, likely only targeting Roy on a three or four-year contract.

The predicament is not only seen in Ottawa, with other teams such as the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, or even the Toronto Maple Leafs potentially having interest. With Roy likely coming in around the $5 million AAV mark, with contract length and no trade clauses impacting the final number, he will have his options this summer, but it is currently a shot in the dark if it will land him back in Los Angeles or elsewhere. If he steps up big for the Kings in the playoffs, they will likely have no choice other than to bring him back and be forced to once again sit out a top, young right-handed defenseman in Jordan Spence.

Luckily for Roy and the Kings, there is plenty of time left to gauge the situation, and the two side’s cordial history with one another should make the process easier. After all, if the two sides deem a reunion unlikely, it is quite possible to see Blake trade Roy’s signing rights to a team of his choice to provide him with the ability to sign for that eighth season and spend the remainder of his career on a team of his choosing.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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